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REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction
1.2 Statement of problem/motivation
13 Aims and objectives
1.4 Scope of the study
1.5 Significance of the study
1.6 Definition of concepts
CHAPTER TWO
Literature Review
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Methodology
3.1 Research method: regression
CHAPTER FOUR
Analysis of Data
CHAPTER FIVE
Conclusion
Recommendation
References
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
National income is the sum of the
money value of all the commodities and services produced in a country within a
particular period of time usually one year.
The question of how an economy
grows could come to mind at this juncture.
It the amount of goods and services produced by an economy
increases. If it does not increase
yearly, it is not growing, even if it is growing, the rate of growth may not be
uniform among years. Therefore it may
not be possible to determine the condition of the economy.
In any case, an economy needs an
indicator for measuring economy growth, this indicator is the monetary
summation at all the commodities and service produced in an economy within a
particular period of time usually a year.
To get national income of a country
like Nigeria for instance, we take the list of the goods and services produced
in the country during the year, assign values to them and add up. If we can do this year after year, we shall
be able to make comparison of activities of Nigeria year after year. Then we can decisively determine whether the
economy of Nigeria is growing, declining or stagnant. It is growing if the National income
increases year after year, declining, if the National income is decreasing and
stagnant it there is no difference in the National Income for years.
In measuring National Income, an
indicator called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used at current price. It is therefore quite important here to point
out the role that prices could play in the measurement of National Income. Prices of goods and services changes from
time to time. These changes can affect
any attempted estimates.
Considerably. Therefore to get an
idea of the real physical change in National Income from year to year, effect
of price changes must be removed.
National Income should be measured
in real terms and allow for changes in price levels. For instance whenever the economy experiences
inflation, price rises while the quantities of goods and services may remain
constant. Let us say that 2000, the
total units of the go0ods and services realized in Nigeria amounted to 50,000
units and also 50,000 units in 2001. Let
us further assume that the average per unit in 2000 was N10.00 while the price
in 2001 was N15,000.
Nigeria’s income with GDP as an
indicator for 2000 was 50,000 units X N10.00 = N5000,000 Nigeria’s income with
GDP as an indicator for 2001 was 50,000 units X N15.00 = N750,000.
If the two figures were presented
to a layman as final products of overall estimates for 2000 and 2001, he would
be tempted to say that the National income for 2001 was higher than that of
2000. This is so monetarily but really
the income for both year are equal. The
difference in value was due to rise in p rice in 2001 while the quantities of
goods and services were the same in both years.
The same thing can be applicable
when a country experience deflation or depression. Therefore in measuring national income for
different years using gross domestic product as an indicator effects of price
changes must be given the normal due. In
so doing the changes in economy can be determined appropriately.
STATEMENT OF
PROBLEM/MOTIVATION
As a result of poor economic
condition in Nigeria relevant information is of great interest to me for
investigation if viable economic solution can be revealed.
Nigeria considered as one of the
third world countries is been assessed by their income yearly. It is a simple logic of our living that it
country’s income is high with considerable population, the enjoyment of the
citizens of that country would be high, while the enjoyment is low with low
national income. It is on this point
that I find it very expedient to analyze the national income of Nigeria and
make necessary recommendation for the improvement of the economy for the
betterment of the citizenry.
AIMS AND
OBJECTIVES
In view of Nigeria’s economic
predicament, the project is aimed at investigating the relationship existing
between disposable income, savings and government final expenditure for the
purpose of suggesting solutions to our economic problems.
After the regression analysis had
been carried out, it will supply solution to the following questions:
1. Is any linear relationship
between the variables listed?
2. How reliable is our
regression coefficient?
3. Can we predict the future value
of dependent variable?
4. How reliable will be our
estimate?
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The study is centre on “National
Income, Savings and Government Final Consumption Expenditure Covering the
period of six years 1998 – 2003.
The raw data used are collected as
primary data by federal office of statistics” publication and Federal Ministry
of Finance Publication. The data are
collected as primary data by federal office of statistics and used as secondary
data in this project which centered on national Accounts. Some of these National Accounts Aggregates
Include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final consumption expenditure, exports and
imports.
National Accounts data presents the
record of economic transaction of the economic in a systematic manner and show
the relationship between the various components of the economy. Economic transaction cover all the activities
of an entity (Household, government, firm, financial institution) that are of
economic nature (production, consumption distribution, savings and foreign
exchange transactions. These economic
transactions of all the entiti8tes and combined together ad presented inform of
account.
Data collected for analysis in this
study center on:-
1. Appropriation of disposable
income as dependent variable.
2. Savings as one of the
independent variable
3. Government final consumption
expenditure as another independent variable.
SIGNIFICANCE OF
THE STUDY
The study will help to know the
status of Nigeria economy. The knowledge
of the status will help to make necessary recommendation in order to revitalize
the poor economic condition of the country for the better future.
The study will also create avenue
for future research.
DEFINITION OF
CONCEPTS
Gross Domestic
Product (GDP): This is the sum of the
money value of all locally produced goods and services. It does not include international
transaction. GDP does not make allowance
for depreciation of capital.
Gross National
Product (GNP): This is the total
money value of current market prices of all final goods and services produced
by the nationals during a specific period.
It includes net income from abroad in respect of the country’s nationals
without any consideration for depreciation of capital.
National Domestic
Product (NDP): This is the total value of all goods and services produced in a
country in a period of time. It exclude
the value of the net earnings and incomes from abroad. An allowance being made for depreciation of
capital.
Net National
Product (NNP): This is the
monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country during a
specific period. It includes net incomes
and earning from abroad and provision being made for the replacement of
depreciation of capital.
Disposable Income
(DPI): This is the amount of money
per year that private sector are free to spend when depreciation of capital,
all taxes, all net profits made by firms but not paid out as divided are added
to the disposable and transfer payment subtracted. We arrive at gross national product.
Net Economic
Welfare (NEW): This examines those factors not
considered when calculating the Gross National Product (GNP). Such factors include social cost 9pollution)
and leisure time the net economic welfare tend to remove the product
(GNP). A nation might have a very high GNP
at a very great social cost as pollution, rising crime etc.
Per Capita Income
(PCI) This is the gross domestic
product divided by the population of the country. Per capita income can be calculated once the
population and gross domestic product are known. So that P.C.I = GDP
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